The Metrics Are Lying to Us

2 Minute Read

The number was never the goal. It just started feeling like it.

We Live by the Number

We all have a ridiculous amount of data available to us. Pace, weekly mileage, the kudos, VO2 max, our recovery scores, etc. There's enough data about ourselves to fill a book. And ironically, a lot of the metrics are so complicated many of us don't even really know what it means.

But somewhere, the data started feeling... mandatory.

All of the data and metrics start as something useful. It was a way to see something we cannot feel directly. Progress is invisible day to day, so we found a way to put it on a screen.

When the Number Becomes the Goal

There is a name for what happens next. It is called Goodhart's Law: when a measure becomes the target, it stops being a good measure.

That bolded sentence above, is the whole article. If you read nothing else, that is it.

So whatever that number is for you, it should serve as a way to measure progress only. It should NOT be the goal to make that number your life, as if improving it is actually what you're training for. 

The second we start training to move the number we fixate on, we lose sight of what the original goal was. And it will impact our decision making.

How We Game It Without Noticing

We do not break this rule on purpose. It's an honest mistake, we've all done it. Don't lie.

• Our easy days start getting not-so-easy, because slow looks bad on the screen. So we run our easy days at medium, blunt our recovery, and limit our progress as a result.
• We tack on junk miles to round out a weekly total. Volume for the dashboard, not for adaptation. Fatigue with nothing to show for it.
• Training turns into a string of little races against our own segments, so the easy aerobic base that actually builds us never gets built.
• The recovery score becomes a source of stress. Comically ironic.

Every one of those is the same move. We bend the training to serve the number.

We can win the metric and lose the fitness it was supposed to measure. The screen says we are progressing while the body says something else entirely.

Make It a Gauge Again

The fix is not to throw the watch in a drawer. You could do that, but the numbers can actually be useful. It just needs to be demoted. 

The data informs. It does not decide. Run easy by effort, and let the pace be whatever it is. Train to the intent of the session, not to the weekly total. The plan leads, and the number reports back.

One question cuts through most of it: am I doing this because it helps me, or because it moves some number? If the only honest answer is the number, that is Goodhart's Law talking, and it is time to re-evaluate.

And every so often, remove the data entirely. Just once in a while. Run by feel. Recalibrate. The fitness was never living on the screen anyway.

Wrap It Up

The numbers are a great supporting tool, but they are not the goal. It is one of the best tools we have for informing a decision, and one of the worst things to hand the keys to.

Use it to inform. Never let it decide.

With this mindset, we build a routine we love and train consistently.